Weekly housing inventory data
This week, inventory growth slowed to 6,803, falling below the target level of 11,000 – 17,000 due to elevated mortgage rates. However, hitting the target level five times this year compared to zero last year has made 2024 a much better year for the housing market than 2023. The data below highlights a healthier year for inventory growth in 2024 than in 2023.
- Weekly inventory change (June 29-July 5): Inventory rose from 645,770 to 652,573
- Same week last year (June 30-July 7): Inventory fell from 466,534 to 466,001
- All-time inventory bottom was in 2022 at 240,497
- This week marks the inventory peak for 2024 at 652,573
- For comparison, active listings for this week in 2015 were 1,183,882
New listings data
We are currently at the seasonal peak period for new listings. While we have shown year-over-year growth in new listings, we have not yet reached the minimum target level of 80,000. Here are the new listings for the past week over the last few years:
- 2024: 71,181
- 2023: 58,289
- 2022: 89,221
Price-cut percentage
In an average year, about one-third of all homes experience a price cut, which is a standard housing activity. With elevated rates, the price-cut percentage is higher than in the previous two years, especially in certain regions of the U.S. The price-cut percentages for the last week over the past few years are as follows:
- 2024: 38%
- 2023: 33%
- 2022: 32%
Pending sales
Here is the weekly pending contract data year-over-year from Altos Research to demonstrate real-time demand in the market. While we are seeing a bit more demand this year due to more sellers who are also buyers, the growth in pending contracts has been minimal. The pending contract data for this week shows:
- 2024: 381,057
- 2023: 381,036
- 2022: 420,816
10-year yield and mortgage rates
Recent movements in the 10-year yield and mortgage rates have been influenced by various factors such as jobs data and inflation reports. The chart below illustrates the correlation between bond yields and mortgage rates.
Mortgage spreads
The spread between the 30-year mortgage rate and the 10-year yield has improved this year compared to previous years. This improvement has helped keep mortgage rates lower than they would have been if spreads were at their worst levels from 2023.
Purchase application data
The recent fluctuations in purchase application data due to rising rates highlight the sensitivity of this metric to changes in mortgage rates. While there have been positive and negative prints in the week-to-week data, the overall trend for 2024 shows a decline in demand compared to 2023.
The week ahead: Inflation, Powell testimony, auctions, and Fed speeches
Upcoming reports on CPI and PPI inflation, along with testimony from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, will provide insights into the economic outlook. Bond auctions and speeches from Fed officials will also be key indicators to watch for any shifts in policy or market sentiment.