There has been a recent firming up in pending contract data, indicating that lower mortgage rates have stabilized and boosted demand. It may take rates dropping below 6% and remaining there for a sustained period to see significant growth in demand from current record-low sales levels. Despite the challenges in housing affordability, the positive shift in housing data without rates going below 6% is encouraging.
Weekly pending sales
Here is the Altos Research weekly pending contract data illustrating real-time demand. While this data is typically seasonal, the recent uptick is noteworthy, especially during a period of seasonal decline. It will be interesting to see if this trend continues despite the usual seasonality.
- 2024: 362,620
- 2023: 340,526
- 2022: 380,823
Purchase application data
Despite a slight increase in mortgage rates, there has been a consecutive positive trend in purchase applications over the past five weeks. This marks the first positive year-over-year print since 2022, reflecting the impact of historically low rates.
Weekly purchase application data has shown varying trends, with a noticeable shift since rates began to decline in mid-June.
- 11 positive prints
- 5 negative prints
- 5 straight weeks of positive gains
- First positive year-over-year print since 2022
Although there hasn’t been significant volume fluctuation, the data reflects a positive change in recent weeks.