Recent data shows that despite higher mortgage rates and inventory levels, home prices have remained stable in the last two months. Our weekly tracker data aims to provide insights beyond traditional monthly reports like Case Shiller and NAR existing home sales report. The trends we’ve observed in recent weeks have been surprising.
We are analyzing how data changes with mortgage rates approaching 6%, to better understand future expectations in the housing market.
Deviation in the Data
We are investigating the impact of mortgage rates on the demand and pricing curves in the housing market. Despite fluctuations, existing home sales have generally remained above 4 million since 1996. However, recent months have shown some deviation from this trend.
By tracking forward-looking data, we aim to provide a more accurate picture of the housing market. The podcast video tutorial linked above explains this concept in detail.
Pending Contracts
The current state of low home sales is unprecedented, considering the consistent trend of mortgage rates between 6%-8% over the past two years. Despite this, sales have not significantly declined, indicating a stable base for the housing market.
Analysis of pending contract data reveals a positive trend when mortgage rates hover around 6%, suggesting a potential for growth in sales with sustainable levels.
For continued sales growth, maintaining mortgage rates around 6% appears crucial, as it provides a balance between demand and pricing in the housing market.
Purchase Application Data
Recent purchase application data has shown positive week-to-week and year-over-year growth. This growth, despite fluctuations, indicates a resilient market.
Analysis of purchase application data reveals a positive correlation with mortgage rate trends, suggesting that lower rates contribute to increased sales activity.
Pricing Data
Contrary to some predictions, pricing data has not experienced a significant downturn, even with rising inventory levels. Mortgage rates around 6% have helped maintain stability in pricing data.
Weekly new pending price median data has shown resilience, indicating a deviation from previous years’ trends. This suggests that maintaining mortgage rates around 6% is essential for sustained market growth.
Weekly Data Lines
Recent data shows a slight decline in housing inventory, despite overall growth this year. New listings have also shown positive trends, indicating a healthy market.
Overall, the housing market in 2024 has shown resilience, with inventory growth and positive new listing data contributing to market stability.
10-Year Yield and Mortgage Rates
Monitoring the 10-year yield and mortgage rates is crucial for understanding market trends. Recent data suggests that maintaining mortgage rates around 6% is essential for market stability.
Mortgage Spreads
Improvements in mortgage spreads have been positive for the housing market this year. Despite recent fluctuations, spreads remain better than last year, contributing to market stability.
The Week Ahead: All Bets Are Off
With upcoming elections and Fed meetings, market predictions are uncertain. Monitoring trends in bond yields and mortgage rates is crucial for understanding market dynamics.
Stay informed and adapt to changing market conditions for successful decision-making in the housing market.