The National Association of Realtors (NAR) has revised its existing-home sales forecast for 2025, predicting a lower number than previously anticipated. The initial forecast in late 2024 projected existing-home sales to reach 4.9 million, with new-home sales increasing by 11%. However, the latest update shows a downward revision.
NAR has also adjusted its projections for 2026, with new-home sales growth now expected to be 5% instead of the previously forecasted 8%. On the other hand, existing-home sales are projected to grow by 11%, falling within the range of 10% to 15% provided by the trade group earlier.
Despite the adjustments, NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun remains optimistic about the market’s direction. He stated, “The worst is over for home sales. The worst for inventory is over. I think the recession probability is still slim. Job additions, lower mortgage rates, and other positive factors are driving home sales in the right direction, offering more business opportunities this year.”
One of the challenges affecting home sales is strained affordability, which continues to hinder the market. NAR’s updated forecast reflects this concern, as it has raised its predictions for home-price growth in 2025 and 2026 from 2% to 3% and 4%, respectively.
The revised existing-home sales number of 4.3 million aligns more closely with other forecasters’ predictions for 2025. NAR’s range of 4.9 million to Realtor.com’s 4 million represents a broad spectrum of expectations in the industry.
HousingWire’s comprehensive 2025 forecast, crafted by Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami and Altos founder Mike Simonsen, projected 4.2 million in sales and a 3.5% increase in home prices.
Recent data from NAR shows that existing-home sales in February reached a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.26 million, with the median sale price experiencing a 3.8% rise.