Recent fluctuations in the financial markets have led to a rise in mortgage rates, but the impact on housing market data remains uncertain. Purchase application data has shown consistent growth, with a 9% week-over-week increase and a 10% year-over-year rise. Despite elevated mortgage rates hovering above 6.64%, the housing market has been resilient.
Purchase application data
The latest purchase application data for 2025 reveals:
- 7 positive readings
- 3 negative readings
- 3 flat prints
Weekly pending sales
Weekly pending sales data indicates a positive trend in housing demand, with a year-over-year increase in total pending contracts. The numbers for the past few years are:
- 2025: 377,633
- 2024: 371,457
- 2023: 335,017
10-year yield and mortgage rates
Expected ranges for 2025:
- Mortgage rates: 5.75% – 7.25%
- 10-year yield: 3.80% – 4.70%
The recent volatility in mortgage rates and bond market stress may lead to a decline in purchase applications. Stability is crucial for a predictable environment in the industry.