Purchase application data
With the recent increase in mortgage rates, there was an expectation for a more significant decline in the data, both week-to-week and year-over-year. Surprisingly, the week-to-week decline was only 5%, which was less than anticipated. Additionally, the year-over-year growth improved from 10% to 13%, possibly due to the low baseline we are starting from.
This trend of growth in purchase applications was unexpected, especially with mortgage rates remaining elevated. The monthly purchase application report for new home sales showed a 14% month-to-month growth and a 5.5% year-over-year growth.
Here is the weekly data for 2025:
- 7 positive readings
- 4 negative readings
- 3 flat prints
The double-digit year-over-year growth in purchase applications was unexpected, especially with the current mortgage rate scenario. The data line surprised many, indicating a positive trend in the market.
Weekly total pending sales
The latest weekly total pending contract data from Altos provides insights into the current trends in housing demand. Despite the need for mortgage rates to trend lower for significant growth, there has been a recent uptick in weekly sales data, resulting in positive year-over-year total pending sales data. Moving forward, there may be more challenging comparisons in the weekly sales data.
Weekly pending contracts for the last week over the past several years:
- 2025: 391,488
- 2024: 384,614
- 2023: 335,017
10-year yield and mortgage rates
In the 2025 forecast, the anticipated ranges were:
- Mortgage rates between 5.75% and 7.25%
- The 10-year yield fluctuating between 3.80% and 4.70%
Promising developments were seen last week in the 10-year yield and mortgage rates. Despite concerns, the 10-year yield stabilized around 4.35%, coinciding with a decline in mortgage rates. This trend suggests a positive shift in the bond market compared to prior weeks.
Last week’s hawkish speech by Powell led to a decline in bond yields, followed by a rebound towards 4.33%, indicating a well-functioning bond market.
Mortgage spreads
Mortgage spreads saw improvement in 2024 after the crisis in 2023. However, recent market volatility has widened the spread, raising concerns about potential mortgage rate increases. Historically, mortgage spreads should range between 1.60% and 1.80%.
Weekly housing inventory data
The growth of inventory has been a positive story in 2024 and 2025, aiming to balance the housing market. Progress continues towards reaching 2019 inventory levels, with an increase in inventory observed this week.
- Weekly inventory change (April 11-April 18): Inventory rose from 702,434 to 719,400
- The same week last year (April 12-April 19): Inventory rose from 526,479 to 542,651
- The all-time inventory bottom was in 2022 at 240,497
- The inventory peak for 2024 was 739,434
- Active listings for the same week in 2015 were 1,060,699
New listings data
The new listings data, which had been negative in recent years, is now showing positive signs. The market is approaching the seasonal peak, with a slight slowdown in the growth of new listings observed this week.
- 2025: 77,004
- 2024: 68,409
- 2023: 59,269
Price-cut percentage
Price cuts have increased this year compared to last, indicating a changing market influenced by inventory levels and mortgage rates. The projected modest increase in home prices for 2025 suggests another year of negative real home price growth.
- 2025: 35.5%
- 2024: 32%
- 2023: 30%
The week ahead: Will headlines trump economic data?
Upcoming speeches from Federal Reserve presidents and potential shifts in leadership dynamics may impact market sentiment. Reports on new and existing home sales, service PMI, and consumer sentiment data will provide further insights into the market trends.
Explore our weekly Housing Market Tracker archive for more insights.