In recent weeks, the weekly purchase application data has shown fluctuations in response to rising mortgage rates. Prior to late January, there were eight weeks of positive trending purchase apps, but as rates began to increase, demand started to fade. Conversely, since mid-June, when mortgage rates started to fall, there have been positive gains in the weekly purchase application data. This includes 12 positive prints, 5 negative prints, and 6 straight weeks of positive gains, with a 9% positive year-over-year growth last week.
Looking at the Altos Research weekly pending contract data, we can see real-time demand trends. While the data is seasonal, it is important to note the positive year-over-year growth, especially with lower mortgage rates. However, the recent uptick in mortgage rates may slow down this progress.
When it comes to weekly housing inventory data, there has been noticeable growth in 2024, with the weekly inventory change showing an increase. This is a positive sign, as active inventory has been higher compared to previous years.
New listings data in 2024 has also seen improvement, although it did not reach the minimum target during peak months. Despite this, there has been an increase from the lowest level ever recorded in 2023.
Price-cut percentages have been influenced by mortgage rate fluctuations, with rising rates leading to more price cuts. However, with recent decreases in mortgage rates, the price-cut percentage has cooled down. It will be interesting to see how this data line evolves in response to potential changes in mortgage rates.
Looking ahead, the week promises to be eventful with Fed speeches, bond auctions, and inflation reports. The labor market continues to play a significant role in the current economic landscape, and it will be crucial to monitor how purchase application data reacts to any further movements in mortgage rates.