Housing demand still showing double-digit growth

Last week, there was a noticeable Santa Claus rally in mortgage rates along with an uptick in housing demand. The economy is still adding jobs, with wages increasing at a rate of 4% annually. Our pending contract data shows growth compared to the past two years, and the purchase application data has also yielded positive results.

Weekly pending sales

Altos Research provides valuable insights into real-time housing demand. While this data is seasonal like most housing data, we have seen an improvement in our weekly pending contract data, even with elevated rates. The trend remains more positive compared to 2023 and most of 2024.

• 2024: 315,566
• 2023: 278,735
• 2022: 282,313

Purchase application data

• 5 positive prints
• 3 negative prints

10-year yield and mortgage rates

Mortgage spreads

Weekly housing inventory data

• Weekly inventory change (Nov. 29-Dec. 6): Inventory fell from 706,554 to 690,015
• The same week last year (Nov. 30-Dec. 7): Inventory fell from 555,717 to 546,424
• The all-time inventory bottom was in 2022 at 240,497
• Active listings for this week in 2015 were 1,050,780

New Listings

• 2024: 30,754
• 2023: 43,188
• 2022: 39,490

Price-cut percentage

• 2024: 38.4%
• 2023: 38.7%
• 2022: 42%

The week ahead: Inflation week!

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