Weekly housing inventory data
Over the past few years, our weekly housing inventory data has shown interesting trends. Typically, the data reaches its peak in October or November, which is later than in the pre-COVID era. However, a shift was observed around mid-June when mortgage rates began to decline. Despite expectations of inventory to remain stable in August due to high mortgage rates, we actually saw a decrease.
Currently, year-over-year inventory growth has decreased from recent highs, even though mortgage rates have not yet reached 6%. This unexpected trend will be monitored closely for the remainder of the year.
Last week, there was a slight increase in inventory:
- Weekly inventory change (Aug. 22-Aug. 29): Inventory decreased from 861,238 to 860,728
- The same week last year (Aug. 23-Aug. 30): Inventory increased from 698,161 to 704,654
Note: Due to the holiday weekend, next week’s housing data may be impacted, but last week’s data appeared normal.
New listings data
The peak of new listings data this year was during the week of May 23, reaching a total of 83,143 listings. Since then, there has been a gradual decline. Despite initial excitement over reaching the target of 80,000 listings for 2025, consecutive weeks with listings above 80,000 during the seasonal peak period have not been seen. The market is now entering a traditional seasonal decline.
Comparing new listings data from the past two years:
- 2025: 63,761
- 2024: 59,566
Price-cut percentage
In a typical year, around one-third of homes experience price reductions. This year, the percentage of price reductions has increased compared to last year, indicating a more buyer-friendly housing market. The rise in price reductions reinforces a cautious growth forecast for 2025. Here are the percentages of homes that saw price reductions last week in recent years:
10-year yield and mortgage rates
In my 2025 forecast, I anticipated mortgage rates between 5.75% and 7.25% and the 10-year yield fluctuating between 3.80% and 4.70%. Despite expectations of rising rates, we saw the lowest mortgage rates of the year due to various factors. The upcoming jobs report will provide important data impacting the Federal Reserve and the markets.
Mortgage spreads
In 2025, we have seen favorable pricing in mortgage spreads compared to previous years. The improvement in mortgage spreads has contributed to more affordable mortgage rates. Historically, mortgage spreads have ranged between 1.60% and 1.80%, impacting current mortgage rates.
Purchase application data
The housing data has shown positive trends with rates under 6.64%. Weekly and year-over-year data have been promising, indicating growth in the market. Continuous monitoring of this data is essential to track market performance.
Total pending sales
The latest total pending sales data indicates positive year-over-year growth, despite not reaching 6% mortgage rates yet. Comparing total pending sales from 2025 and 2024:
- 2025: 376,916
- 2024: 365,909
Weekly pending sales
Weekly pending sales data provides valuable insights into short-term trends, although it can be influenced by holidays and other factors. Last week’s data showed slight year-over-year growth, indicating a positive market direction.
- 2025: 65,701
- 2024: 64,255
The week ahead: Jobs week!
As we enter jobs week, significant economic data and statements from the Federal Reserve are expected. The market may experience volatility due to various factors, making it an important week to watch.