- 4 positive readings
- 3 negative readings
- 2 flat prints
We have recently seen a period of positive year-over-year growth, a welcome change from the past few years.
While mortgage rates have slightly increased recently, there is still optimism. Sustaining a positive trend even with rates around 6.64% could lead to increased home sales if rates drop to 6%.
The key factor is the duration of lower mortgage rates, as discussed in a recent episode of the HousingWire Daily podcast.
Comparing last year’s data when rates were higher, there was no year-over-year growth between 2024 and 2023. Mortgage rates fell to around 6% in late 2022 and early 2023, rising slightly to 6.63% by early 2024.
- 14 negative prints
- 2 flat prints
- 2 positive prints
Weekly pending contract data from Altos shows insights into current housing demand trends. As mortgage rates have risen in 2025, there has been a slight decline in pending sales year over year.
- 2025: 333,385
- 2024: 345,502
- 2023: 320,804
10-year yield and mortgage rates
In the 2025 forecast, mortgage rates are expected to range between 5.75% and 7.25%, while the 10-year yield may fluctuate between 3.80% and 4.70%.
Despite recent market volatility, bond yields and mortgage rates have not decreased, holding steady even after a stock market correction.
Mortgage spreads
Improvements in mortgage spreads in 2024 and 2025 have impacted current mortgage rates. Predictions suggest a modest decline in spreads for the rest of the year.
Weekly housing inventory data
As spring arrives, the usual inventory boost is expected. While inventory levels have not reached previous highs, progress has been positive.
- Weekly inventory change (March 7-March 14): Inventory rose from 642,359 to 655,626
- The all-time inventory bottom was in 2022 at 240,497
- The inventory peak for 2024 was 739,434
New listings data
New listings data is showing improvement, inching closer to pre-pandemic levels. National new listing data for last week over the previous years:
- 2025: 68,191
- 2024: 59,542
- 2023: 41,415
Price cut percentage
Price cut percentage has been higher in recent years due to increased inventory and elevated mortgage rates. Predictions suggest modest home price growth for 2025.
- 2025: 34%
- 2024: 31%
- 2023: 31%
The week ahead: Fed week, retail sales and housing data
Upcoming events include the Federal Reserve meeting, retail sales data, jobless claims data, builders’ confidence, housing starts, and existing home sales.
Stay tuned for updates on the market and economic indicators as we navigate through Fed week and other upcoming events.