Market analysts predict a 4% increase in the S&P 500 over the next year, following a strong start to 2024 where the index rose 14% in the first half of the year, according to Bankrate’s Second-Quarter Market Mavens Survey. The experts expect the S&P 500 to reach 5,663 by the end of the second quarter next year, up from 5,461 at the end of the survey period.
Analysts also anticipate U.S. stocks to outperform international stocks, with growth stocks expected to outperform value stocks.
Mark Hamrick, Bankrate’s senior economic analyst, notes that while the first half of 2024 set a high bar, attempting to time the market is risky. The survey results suggest caution among professional investors for both the short and long term.
Key points from the Bankrate survey include:
Forecasts and analysis:
This article is one in a series discussing the results of Bankrate’s Second-Quarter 2024 Market Mavens Survey:
- Survey: Stocks to gain 4% over the next year
- Survey: Market pros see 10-year Treasury yield under 4% a year from now
- Survey: Best ways to play falling interest rates, elections and AI, according to investing pros
Stocks to rise slightly over next 12 months, experts say
The Market Mavens survey projects a modest 3.7% increase in the S&P 500 over the coming year, reflecting a more subdued outlook compared to previous strong performances. The Federal Reserve’s approach to monetary policy and economic growth will play a significant role in equity market performance.
Analysts remain uncertain about the market’s five-year outlook, with some expecting lower returns due to late-stage economic cycles and high valuations. Others believe that lower interest rates could align returns with historical averages.
Preference for U.S. stocks over global stocks remains strong among respondents, citing factors like tech innovation, high margins, and strong growth in the U.S. market. However, concerns about stretched valuations in the U.S. market were also noted.
Growth stocks are expected to outperform value stocks in the next year, driven by improving earnings, strong margins, and valuation expansion.
Overall, market analysts anticipate a more moderate pace of gains in the coming months, emphasizing the importance of staying invested and focusing on long-term strategies.
AI is expected to show volatility in the near future, but the rapid expansion of new technologies will continue to disrupt various industries. Market analysts predict a balanced performance between growth and value stocks in the upcoming year, with a wider range of leaders driving market growth. While some analysts believe that value stocks are attractively priced and poised for potential outperformance, there is no guarantee that this will materialize. If economic growth remains steady and interest rates decrease, value stocks could provide the best returns. Chief Investment Officer Charles Lieberman points out that value stocks are currently undervalued compared to growth stocks.
The methodology behind this analysis involved a survey of stock market professionals conducted in the second quarter of 2024. The survey included insights from various experts in the field, such as Sameer Samana, Dec Mullarkey, and Patrick J. O’Hare, among others. It is important for investors to conduct their own research before making investment decisions, as past performance does not guarantee future results.
Please note that this content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.